THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Batting the pitcher 8th?

John Beamer is on board as well:

Looking at the NL as a whole and using the same model that we used for the Cardinals we can replicate (or at least attempt to) these results. My calculations suggest that moving an average pitcher to the eighth hole results in an increase of about 0.7 runs per year, slightly less than what The Book found. Moving the hurler further back to number seven is no different to batting the hurler ninth, which is identical to the conclusion in The Book.

That’s for the average NL team.  But, for specific teams, like the Cards, you have two wrinkles: 1. Albert Pujols is not your typical #3 or #4 hitter.  Plus, it would likely matter if you model him as the #3 or #4 hitter.  2. Cards pitchers are better than average.  As I showed in The Book, the “second leadoff theory” doesn’t apply to the AL.  So, there’s a point, somewhere between the average NL pitcher and the average AL #9 hitter where it doesn’t matter where you put your worst hitter (8th or 9th).  More accurately, we’re talking about the gap between the two worst hitters.

If John is around, can you take the typical NL slot numbers, and alter the #9 hitter upward enough until you get a breakeven as him being 8th or 9th?  And part 2: take the typical NL slot numbers, and replace the #3 with Pujols, and then the #4 with Pujols.  What’s the breakeven point for pitchers in each case?