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Thursday, April 10, 2008
Batted Ball DIPS
Voros got the ball rolling with DIPS. You can see what he’s doing, step-by-step, essentially recreating a pitching line, presuming all batted balls in park resulted in the same percentage of hits. And you end up with a dERA. (This has a high correlation with FIP, which is why I prefer FIP.) Then, Hardball Times over the past few years, have been breaking down the batted balls by FB, GB, LD, and so, each one has its own hit and out rate, or basically run value, culminating in a fantastic resource, and indeed, a staple in THT Annuals.
Essentially, a LD has the same run value as a walk, an infield fly has the same run value as a K. You could throw those into the FIP equation, if you like. Now, completing the circle, Graham basically follows the Voros method of recasting a pitching line but looking at the batted ball type. I’d like to call it DIPS 3.0, but Gassko used the name three years ago, and it looks like he did something very similar to Graham. I am glad that someone as seemingly resourceful as Graham (I don’t think I know him) is in our midst.
I’m having a hard time keeping all these different flavors of Batted Ball Run equations straight. I hope now you guys are in the same boat as I am. Maybe Graham can write something up for Hardball Times (without those greek letters).
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