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Thursday, December 09, 2010
Bases, Outs by Event
This is how many bases are gained on each event. This is as pure as it gets. No adjustments, no fancy-schmancy divisions or multiplications. A straight addition of all bases gained per event.
For a HR for example, you add up all the bases the runners took from 1B and 2B and 3B, and you get 1.4 bases gained, and the hitter himself gains 4.0 bases, for a total of 5.4 bases. For the inning-ending plays (outs), I subtract the bases, hence -0.5 bases for strikeouts.
If you add up all the bases, divide by 4, you get exactly the total number of runs scored. (That should make David Smyth happy.)
Most of the event categories are obvious. The less obvious ones are FCSA is “fielder’s choice, safe”. ROE is “reached on error”. SAFE is “safe somehow”. XI is interference. NIBB is unintentional walks. The line separates the good from the bad events. The top part are batter events, and bottom part are runner events. DI is “defensive indifference”. OA is “other advance”.
ROUGHLY speaking, if you take bases and divide by 4, you get close to Linear Weights. For outs, subtract an extra -.18 runs per out for the current time period, and -.16 runs for the previous time periods.
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