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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Baserunning and its dependence on…
I wrote the following in resonse to Matt’s article:
There are three major reason why the baserunning rates would differ:
1 - Parks. The closer the OF is playing, the less chance you’ll have to take the extra base. As well, turf parks force the fielders to play a bit farther. As we know, parks changed considerably in the last 40 years.
2 - Run Environment. The higher the run environment, the larger the cost of the out. However, the value of the base does not rise to the same proportion. So, with the breakeven point higher for SB and for baserunning/taking extra base, it will be less likely that a runner will try for the extra base.
3 - Actual players. The Vince Colemans and Willie Wilsons do not fill our league like they used to. It could very well be that this era is filled with guys who simply don’t have the speed to take the extra base.
If you were to create a chart like this:
http://www.tangotiger.net/destmob.html
for say a group of speedsters today (Crawford, Pierre, Ichiro, etc), and compare it to speedsters of yesteryear (Raines, Rickey, Coleman, Wilson), might they be the same? Maybe. But, you might have a disproportionate number of those speedsters back then.
In any case, all three are plausible.
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