Friday, September 24, 2010
Baseball lemons
Phil:
Now, consider moving beyond that season. You still have the same two groups, who are the same age, play the same position, had identical Marcels last year, and performed identically last year. The only difference between the two groups is that, in one of the groups, every player was traded before last season.
How would you expect the rest of their careers to match up?
This time, if you thought they’d be nearly identical, you’d be very wrong. It turns out that the control group played 60 percent longer than the traded group, and, in addition, was more productive—by almost three quarters of a run created per 27 outs.


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