from Amazon
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Base running lwts
I recently revamped my base running linear weights program. The results will soon be available on Fan Graphs, along with their other stats of course.
I am still working out any bugs which might be present and tweaking the methodology. I want to vet some results and methodologies with you guys so you can offer any comments and suggestions.
I don’t include SB/CS/PO numbers. I also don’t include advancing or getting thrown out on WP or PB.
Basically, I keep track of all base runner advances and outs (and not advancing of course) on batted balls.
Right now, the only thing I keep track of on ground balls to the infield is when a ground ball is hit to the SS or 3B, how often a runner on second (with no runners on 1st or 3rd) with less than 2 outs, advances to third (or home) or gets thrown out at third (or home).
I could track how often the runner on first stays out of a DP with a runner on second, less than 2 outs, and a ground ball to the IF (keeping separate track of balls to the left and right side).
For air balls, I keep track of all advances, holds, and outs on hits and outs, with each situation treated separately, and batted balls to each outfield position treated separately as well.
For air balls, I don’t distinguish the fielding location of a batted ball other than which fielder fields it (in other words, left side, right side or middle). And like I said, on ground balls with a runner on second, I only look at balls hit to the SS and 2B, and I don’t distinguish between the two.
I do a simple park adjustment for all batted balls, based on where in the OF (L,C,or R) it is hit at each park.
That is pretty much it.
So I might add in “staying out the DP” for runners on second and less than 2 outs with a runner on first.
I also might add in advances and outs on WP and PB, although I am worried that the numbers will reflect more of how often a pitcher threw a WP (or the catcher committed a PB) than how often a runner advances on a potential WP or PB. IOW, if player A advanced 5 times on a WP and player B advanced no times, I am afraid that the difference is mostly because the pitcher happened to throw more pitches that got away with player A on the bases than the fact that player A attempted an advance more often than player B. But I am not sure. It is always a judgment call on what things to include based on whether there is much of a skill element in the numbers. I suppose I can look at the y-t-y correlations in the WP and PB numbers for base runners, and if it is real low, I won’t include them.
Anyway, here are some preliminary results:
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date