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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Bad game theory application or just bad pitching in general..
I was watching the COL/WAS game today and Garrett Mock, the rookie, was on the mound for WAS. He was 0-1 on Hawpe with runners on 1 and 2 with 2 outs. The catcher called for a high fastball. Mock hit his spot (out of the zone) and the batter fouled it off. The catcher called for another high fastball (cutter I think) and the batter fouled it off again.
The announcer, who is the “analyst” and an ex-player, then said, “I would be shocked if he threw that pitch again.”
No, no, no! I don’t know the exact percentages, but OF COURSE he needs to throw that SAME pitch some significant percentage of the time!
The announcer/analyst fell into the trap of thinking that once you throw a certain pitch 2 or even 3 times in a row, you must throw a different pitch. That is BAD strategy and a misuse of proper game theory.
My guess is that there are plenty of catchers and pitchers (and managers and pitching coaches) who think like the analyst. Batters as well. My guess is also that the best pitchers, at least the crafty ones who are good because they mix up their pitches, recognize that they should be about just as likely to throw a certain pitch no matter how many times in a row they just threw that same pitch, given the count and game situation. In the case of Mock above, the count didn’t change, and obviously the game situation was the same, so he probably should be just as likely to throw that high fastball the third time in a row as he was the first or second time. The only qualification to that is what he thinks the batter might be thinking (e.g., if he thinks that batter is thinking like the announcer, he might be MORE likely to throw the same pitch), or whether the batter might have that high fastball imprinted on his brain such that he would be less likely to keep throwing that pitch.
This, by the way, is an area of research that is sorely lacking in the pitch f/x work so far. Hear that guys?
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