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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Attendance Timeline adjustments
Another honest mess. New park parameter should be used, but has not been handled.
There were 20 teams that played in 1968 that also played in 1969 (i.e., in 1969, it was the 20 teams of 1968, plus the 4 expansion teams). If we ONLY look at the matching teams (the two that played in both), we see that their per-game attendance increased from 14,220 to 14,760, for an increase of 4% in attendance. However, their won-loss record went from .500 to .527 (the wonders of expansion), and that kind of jump would demand an 8% increase in attendance. We can say therefore that attendance was DOWN 4% (4% minus 8%) relative to expectations of win percentage.
I did this for all seasons. The biggest year over year drop was 1994 to 1995: a drop of 20% in attendance per game.
Anyway, I also “chained” the results. What this provides is a timeline adjustment.
For example, in 1948, the timeline adjustment is 0.98. That’s the same timeline adjustment as 1997-98. Therefore, we can say that even though there were about 17,000 per game in 1948, that’s equivalent to the 29,000 per game in 1997-98.
We see that MLB was most popular in 1993-94, though 2007-08 comes close.
Again, I’m providing an honest framework, where the mess of not considering new ballparks should be handled (by someone else).
Generally speaking, the eras can be set as:
1946-1951 (88% attendance of 2009)
1952-1960 (66%)
1961-1976 (58%)
1977-1986 (77%)
1987-2009 (99%)
Data (quasi-formatted… copy to Excel to see it better formatted):
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