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Saturday, September 19, 2009
At what point would you prefer road stats only?
(and a portion, around 1/15 or so, of the home stats of course.)
I have thought about and written about this before, and this piece by DC got me thinking about it again.
Assuming that park adjusting home stats are problematic because we think that parks affect different hitters differently, there must be a point at which it is better to use road stats only (adjusting for HFA of course) plus a small portion of home stats, rather than using all of the home stats after park adjusting them. This is with respect to “neutralizing” a player’s stats of course, in order to determine his context-neutral true talent.
What point would that be? IOW, how many seasons or PA? Would you only even think about doing that for non-traditional parks, like Coors or Fenway? Would it matter if the player had extreme splits or not?
Or perhaps it is correct to always weight the road stats more heavily. If yes, by how much. And again, would you weight or weight them more heavily for players playing in unconventional parks or for those that had unusually large or small splits (for their home park)?
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