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Thursday, January 05, 2012
Zambrano v Volstad
Performance-expectation-wise, let’s call it even. So, this is strictly a financial discussion, to make sure it all works out evenly.
Cubs were originally on the hook for 18MM$. Now, they are on the hook for 15MM$, plus whatever Volstad costs them, which is probably 9MM$ over the next 3 years. So, they spend an extra 6MM$ to turn Zambrano into Volstad this year, AND the next two years. That sounds like a pretty good deal, as paying for two more years of Zambrano (sans headache), or someone of his performance level, in 2013-14 would have likely run the Cubs 10MM$.
Marlins were on the hook for 9MM$ for Volstad (though they could cut him after each season naturally), but now they are on the hook for Zambrano for 3MM$ (and they can cut him loose right after). If Z pitches like Volstad over the next 3 years, it’ll cost them 13MM$ (3MM$ for this year, and say 2/10 for Z or someone like him, sans headache). Instead of 9MM$.
So, it looks like the Cubs get a 4MM$ surplus in the deal, but, perhaps Z is better than we’re suggesting. Throw-in the headache effect, and the Cubs looked like they cost as good as they could possibly get here, in terms of flipping one pitcher for another pitcher.