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Saturday, September 19, 2009
WPA captures the essence of baseball
Bottom of the 9th, down by 1, runner on base, Ichiro at bat, Mariano pitching. The result as you see the players perform.
The result, through Win Expectancy:
The result, through WPA (go to the last line):
M Rivera I Suzuki 9 2 _2_ 3-2
Ichiro Suzuki homered (Fliner (Fly)). Michael Saunders scored.
5.02 0.32 100.0 % .858 1.78
The result, as you see it through the fans:
# juneau_fan on September 18th, 2009 9:46 pm
It can’t happen two nights in a row…O. M. G!!!!!!!!!!!!
# georgmi on September 18th, 2009 9:46 pmHoly effing crap.
# TWownsU on September 18th, 2009 9:46 pmICHIRO HELL YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
# Paul L on September 18th, 2009 9:47 pmOH YEA!
# dsmiley on September 18th, 2009 9:47 pmICHIRO!
# Sports on a Schtick on September 18th, 2009 9:47 pmWHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
# Paul L on September 18th, 2009 9:47 pmGod that was sweet.
# Lauren, token chick on September 18th, 2009 9:48 pmHoly crap! I cannot believe what I just saw. Awesome.
That is pure baseball, right there.
What does Linear Weights say? +1.4 runs. What does WAR say? +.14 wins. What does any context-neutral metric say? Just another home run.
For those who watch the game, and want to see that moment captured in numbers (for whatever reason you have do to that), that’s what LI gives you (leverage of 5 times the normal situation), that’s what WE gives you (chance of winning going from 14% to 100%), and that’s what WPA gives you (+.86 wins, linked to Ichiro).
If you want to argue that Ichiro doesn’t “deserve it” (whatever that means) that’s fine. But, that moment that the fans felt is captured by win probability. As much as you may not like to see that.