THE BOOK cover
The Unwritten Book is Finally Written!
An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
Read Excerpts & Customer Reviews

Buy The Book from Amazon


SABR101 required reading if you enter this site. Check out the Sabermetric Wiki. And interesting baseball books.
MOST RECENT ARTICLES
MAIL : You ask | We say

Advanced


THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

<< Back to main

Monday, January 04, 2010

Would you rather…

have your teams squeak into the playoffs and win the World Series, or destroy all comers in the regular season and get bounced in the first round?  This is what RJ is asking regarding the Mariners’ 116 win season.

In the NHL, I had the fortune of being at game 2 and game 5 (the clincher) of the Canadiens’ 1993 Cup run.  The level of euphoria was tremendous.  Montreal had a very good regular season that year (finished 6th), but the Penguins stood alone.  Not to mention they won the Cup the two previous seasons as well.  As luck would have it, the Islanders beat the Penguins, and the Canadiens played the Islanders.  The Canadiens with Patrick Roy in nets had ten OT wins of their 16 playoff wins.  I think in this case, it’s an easy call to say that better to finish in 6th than 1st.

But, what of the 1996 Redwings, who were 62-13, and lost the semi-finals to the eventual Cup winners (Avalanche, also not coincidentally backstopped by the same Patrick Roy)?  In that year, the gap between the Redwings and Avalanche (#2) was the same as between the Avs and the 19th place team.  How much of the regular season suffering would fans trade in to get the Cup? 

That’s basically the trade off.  How many punches in the face can you take in order to win the bout?  Or, would you rather be the one who keeps punching and hitting, and only to get one knockout punch against you?  Or, do you even see it as a knockout punch, as it could very well be a TKO.  How is it that fans actually feel about it.  I know it doesn’t feel like I’m receiving a knockout punch on the losing side, even though it feels like I’m giving the knockout punch on the winning side.  On the losing side, it feels more like a TKO (i.e., small sample size).  Are you will to keep suffering the pummeling if you can see that cup light at the other end?  Do you want to spend 162 games and squeak in, or run over everyone and have a blast for 6 months doing so, only to come up short in the end?


(35) Comments • 2010/01/07 • Sabermetrics
Page 1 of 1 pages

<< Back to main