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Saturday, October 21, 2006
World Series Strategy Thread
Hopeully there can be some intelligent, sabermetric-oriented discussion about manager (and other) strategies during the WS. Without sounding too elitist, and of course everyone is welcome on this site, I hope the discussion does not turn into, “They should not have pitched to Pujols in the 3rd inning because you don’t want the other teams’ best player to beat you,” but we’ll see. Speaking of pitching to Pujols…
I often have to turn to the “rules” and formulas in The Book to figure out whether an IBB was warranted. Of course, one can study the IBB chapter in The Book and easily memorize some good rules of thumb (can you imagine a manager doing that? Of course they should.). In any case, I don’t think it is even close or close to close to IBB Pujols to pitch to the lefty Edmonds. In fact, when heatlhy, Edmonds is almost as good as Pujols versus a RHP. Sure, Edmonds is probably not 100%, but supposedly neither is Pujols. In any case, I don’t think it is even close. And as I have said a million times, how would Leyland, LaRussa, or McCarver know whether it was correct or not? If you asked them how they would know, what would they say? There is no shame in being ignorant. There is shame in being stupid. Not knowing something is ignorance. Not knowing what you don’t know is stupidity. Anyone know who said that? Anyway, if anyone wants to look up the “cost” (or benefit) of IBB Pujols in that situation, be my guest. So I would give props to Leyland.
Speaking of that AB, was it a 0-2 count or was it the first pitch? Inquiring minds want to know since brilliant Fox showed a million replays (of something) and then cut back to Pujols. I think I heard McCarver say it was 0-2 sevreal times and then I think I also heard him say it was the first pitch (the HR). I am too lazy to look it up on Gameday.
Other than that, I don’t recall any important decisions to be made by either manager, other than leaving in Reyes or not. I am open to another opinion, but I don’t see any reason not to take him out after the 7th or 8th and then use your worst reliever to finish up the game. Don’t you want to save Reyes as much as you can? Of course managers are always scared to death to use bad relievers when they are ahead in the game. Note to managers: That is what your worst relievers are for - when you are down by a lot or up by a lot, late in the game when the LI is really small.
BTW, did Fox change their speed gun or was Verlander throwing like 5 mph less than he usually does? What did Gameday say?