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Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Working the plate
Welcome to a new pitchf/xer:
As expected, if Pitch 1 well outside the strike-zone was called a strike then Pitch 2 was more likely to also be called a strike. (Consistency!) Against right-handed batters there was a particularly big jump, though those sample sizes were relatively small. For pitches on the edge though, getting a strike called actually made it less likely that Pitch 2 was called a strike, as well as being less likely than if Pitch 1 was called a ball. The differences aren’t tremendous - and I don’t want say that there was certainly a causal relationship - but perhaps the umpires would occasionally throw in a make-up call if they think they missed one. And when Pitch 1 was taken for a strike not on the outside part of the zone, then having Pitch 2 called a strike off the plate was far less likely.