from Amazon
Monday, September 28, 2009
Working the count, for the team
We’ve talked about this before, and I wish someone would do a study on it. The question is what ancillary benefits there are a to team for working the count, over and above, the actual direct outcomes. BtB is talking about it.
The suggestion is that you work the count to get to the middle-inning relievers (as if that’s necessarily a good thing for the batting team). Now, with a study like this, you have to be careful not to start with an endpoint, and work backwards. You’ll bias your sample like that.
As one example, a reader suggested that the 2008 Cubs did a number on their opponents in the 5th and 6th innings. So, start there. Take the team that sees the most pitches per batter, and see how they did against all pitchers in those two innings. And take the team that sees the fewest pitches per batter. Do this over a 10-yr time period, and maybe put 3 teams each year in both groups. You have 30 teams in both pools. Do you see ANY difference between the two pools in terms of runs per inning, compared to runs scored in the other innings?