from Amazon
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Winning Streaks
Dackle gives us some great research. Suppose you have a team that went 0-10. And in the 5-games preceding that 10-game run, they were .358. What would you expect their record to be after the 10-game run? And suppose you have a team that went 10-0, and in the 5 preceding games they were .610, what’s your expectation for the games following the streak? In short, does the hot/cold hand continue, or will teams simply revert to their previously established levels?
Then, dackle also shows the record game-by-game, leading up to the runup. In essence, when you are hot, you are hot… until you are not. There’s no runup, there’s nothing for us to see that the run would start, nor that the run would stop.