from Amazon
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Win Probability in Football
Pro Trade looks at win probability in football. In baseball, the minimum states you need is inning, score, base, out. In football, it’d be time to half, time to game, score, down, yards to 1st down, yards to goal. The Pro Trade gang also added timeouts, which is neat. As you can see, alot more states to consider. However, there are far fewer events to consider in football. What I’d like to see from them is a Leverage Index chart. Based on their chart in the article, it seems that there is more clutch situations, but who knows.