from Amazon
Friday, February 10, 2012
Win expectancy charts used in football… in 1983!
http://sagarin.com/sports/wham_bam.pdf
Some familiar names, notably Sagarin and Wayne Winston. Football, more than baseball, is a great sport for using win expectancy charts. Whereas in baseball the pitcher has a large set of pitches and locations to choose from (and won’t even necessarily hit the target), and the batter has to choose to swing or not, and game theory and randomization will play a huge role here, in football you have a much more finite set of choices, and the play is over after the play (as opposed to baseball because of the count). The clock, penalties, the turnovers, etc, all add great variables that make the win expectancy really valuable for football.
Glove-slap: Kevin.