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Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Will Jim Rice Make the Hall Of Fame?
Here’s what I did:
Year, Years On Ballot, Votes
2006 12 65%
2005 11 59%
2004 10 55%
2003 9 52%
2002 8 55%
2001 7 58%
2000 6 51%
1999 5 29%
1998 4 43%
1997 3 38%
1996 2 35%
1995 1 30%
This year, Rice got 63% of the vote.
Everything that follows will only look at what happens with the BBWAA in control.
Let’s look at year 6, which is when he got 51% of the vote. Every player who received at least 45% of the vote in their 6th year made the HOF… except the still eligible Dawson (this year at 57%), Gossage (55%), Gil Hodges (54%) and then Rice.
How about in year 7? Every player who received at least 48% of the vote has managed to eventually get in… except Gossage (65%) and Rice (58%), and Hodges (52%).
In year 8, every player who received at least 44% of the vote has managed to eventually get in...except Gossage (this year, 71%), Gil Hodges (60%), Rice (55%), Blylven (53%), Jim Bunning (50%).
In year 9, 50% is the cutoff point, and above that is Hodges(58%), Bunning (54%), Rice (52%). Drawing that line is Bruce Sutter at 50%. You can make the case to instead draw the line at Ralph Kiner’s 59%, and I’d agree. At this point, Rice is losing ground.
In year 10: the real cutoff is Bill Terry’s 66%. After that, you have Bunning (65.6%), Hodges (59%), Rice (55%) of guys who are not in the HOF. The optimist will look at the next player, Bruce Sutter, with 54% of the vote in year 10, and eventually making it in.
Year 11: Bunning got 70% of the vote, and he didn’t get in. Then it’s rice at 59%. Sutter however also got 59% and he did get in.
Year 12. Jim Bunning (74%), and didn’t get in. Slaughter 69% and didn’t get in. Sutter 67% and did get in. Rice at 65%.
This year, Rice lost a step. It was his year 13. Bruce Sutter made it on his 13th year. Slaughter at 69% and didn’t make it. Bunning at 63% and didn’t make it.
Who made it in their 14th or 15th year? Three guys made it in the 50s, but that had more to do with the rules at the time. Otherwise, no one since 1955 made it in his 14th year, and no one at all has ever made it in his 15th year.
Goose Gossage will make it. Andre Dawson will probably make it. Jim Rice will not. Not with the BBWAA anyway.