from Amazon
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
“Why in my day…”
It would seem that the genetic and mental makeup of all athletes has improved in all sports, except for a MLB pitcher. You don’t hear the bullsh!t in the NHL about how players today are not better, stronger, or faster than of yesteryear. While clearly some stars of the past like Gordie Howe and Rocket Richard would be stars today because of their toughness, no one is suggesting that stars today would be laid to waste fifty years ago. Does anyone say that star players in the NBA or NFL would not have been tough enough or good enough to play in the past? Would we say that star hitters today would not be star hitters in the past? No, no one says this.
But pitchers? All of a sudden…
...the one position where the manager has complete discretion as to how often to let the pitcher pitch and when to pull him from the game, we now decide that it’s the pitcher, unique among all athletes everywhere, that is not tough enough. And yet, it’s pitchers today that throw harder and faster than they ever have. (Perhaps even the reason they come out early is because they ARE throwing harder and faster than ever: they don’t pace themselves as much as those of yesteryear. But, that’s not the point here.)
Let’s presume for the moment that star pitchers today are as good, as strong, as man enough, as those of the past. That is, leave your “Why in my day...” at the door.
So, what I did was looked at the total number of batters faced by pitchers in each season. And, I took the 16th highest total of each season. For example, in 2008, the 16th highest total of batters faced was 881. In 1998, it was 958. In 1988, it was 1001. In 1978, it was 1062. In 1968 it was 1038. In 1958, it was 975.
We’re not going to presume that in the span of 10 years, from 1998 to 2008, that pitchers have gotten so weak that they face 8% less batters on that basis, are we? Isn’t it more likely the environment that dictates how many batters a star pitcher faces? Remember, I’m looking at the pitcher who faced the 16th highest number of batters in each season.
Anyway, let’s normalize all our batters faced numbers to 1000. In 2008, CC Sabathia faced 1023 batters (surely HE’s a workhorse, and yet, he would not even crack the top 16 in 1968). Since Mr#16 faced 881 batters, we bump up all the numbers by 1000/881, or 13.5%, giving Sabathia 1161 batters faced in a “normal” environment.
I did this for every pitcher in every season since 1901. Greg Maddux, who in reality faced 20,421 batters (10th all-time), now comes out to 21,942 batters, to lead MLB history. Nolan Ryan, who faced 22,575 (3rd all-time), now faces 21,870, to be #2. The in-reality leader is Walter Johnson (23,749 batters), and in this revised reality comes in at 21,369 batters, or 6th.
The single-season leaders, in reality, are these:
year BFP
1903 1814
1908 1799
1904 1778
1901 1685
1902 1682
1907 1663
1904 1613
1904 1597
1904 1593
1902 1592
1901 1578
1904 1572
1912 1564
1901 1550
1923 1548
1904 1548
1971 1538
I didn’t want to give you their names, because it’s irrelevant. Well, the last guy is Mickey Lolich. But, really, what does it mean that the guys who faced the most batters since 1901 did it between 1901 and 1908? Do we really believe that pitchers from one hundred years ago were simply so much stronger than today? No, of course not.
This is why I hate record-keeping in baseball. Many think that because a number is recorded that it requires no understanding of the context. This is unlike every other number faced in their daily lives. “Why in my day, bread cost a quarter”; does anyone actually say that without using the word “inflation”? I hate the box office numbers that they tout, not accounting for the fact that tickets cost more today than when Jaws came out. Wouldn’t it be better (though, obviously less newsworthy) to say how many tickets were sold, than how much they were able to charge for them? Do the Yankees report attendance, or how much money they were able to charge their customers?
Here is the virtual-reality batters faced numbers, single-season leaders:
year BFP1000
1946 1585
1908 1525
1941 1494
1903 1481
1953 1479
1902 1460
1938 1438
1907 1431
1901 1398
1979 1398
1972 1390
1977 1386
1902 1382
1911 1374
1948 1371
1911 1370
1944 1366
1971 1366
That last guy is the same Mickey Lolich in 1971. The other 1970s pitchers in that list are Phil Niekro (twice) and Wilbur Wood.
Now, the #1 guy is Bob Feller, in 1946. In reality, he was #25 in history. (Before you think this is a war issue, the #16 guy in 1946 faced 954 batters. In 1947 and in 1948 it was 958. )
This #16 baseline approach still may not be good enough. Roy Halladay is the leader among pitchers since 1988, with 1189 virtual batters (compared to 1071 actual) in 2003. That puts him as #195. Sabathia in 2008 is 268th all-time.
There are other kinds of baselines you can use. You can set the baseline equal to the number of teams, so that while Walter Johnson is compared to the 16th highest total, Sabathia is compared to the 30th highest total. There are arguments to be made for both sides here. I’ll leave it to others to continue to work through this problem.
The key though is not to simply treat each number without accounting for the difference in environments. We do it for everything else. And we certainly have to do it for pitcher usage.