from Amazon
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Whom would you rather have in your lineup tomorrow?
not counting defense.
Jose Vidro
.214/.262/.315
or
A.J. Pierzynski
.291/.327/.434
Vidro of course, and it is not even close.
I am so sick of EVERYONE equating a player’s 3 month (or 6 month, or one month, or one year) performance with their “true talent” that I can’t stand it anymore.
Where do they think that we get our projection algorithms from? From real life! When REAL LIVE PLAYERS who are 33 years old hit .780 in their careers and then .577 in 3 months, they hit .740 (or whatever the number is) from then on in! We don’t just make these projections up. They are based on what players actually do, given their histories.
Vidro is not even close to being the worst hitter in baseball. There are probably at least 20 full time players who are worse than he is. Of course, we don’t KNOW that. That is simply our best estimate, given what we DO know.
This year, Vidro is the whipping boy for the “worst player in baseball that should not be playing.” Granted, his projection is not what you would hope for a DH, but, as I said, he is so far from the worst hitter in baseball it is not even close.
Here are some examples of typical comments on Vidro, from BTF (Primer):
Is Vidro the worst hitter in the last ten years to receive significant playing time at DH?
He might not be the worst if someone had significant injury problems or something. But he could be the worst that a team entered the season with as the intended DH.
Yes, Willie Bloomquist would make a better DH than Vidro. After quoting everyone’s 2008 stats, as if no one’s prior stats existed or had any relevance.
Even worse is Sexson. He was just released. I have him currently projected at 11 runs (per 150) above average, which is about average for a first baseman. I would take him over probably 100 full time players in MLB, not including defense.