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Monday, September 29, 2008
Who should switch positions?
I’m running the Fans Scouting Report for each player, giving him a valuation per position. Since speed matters little for a catcher, that component is underweighted if I put that player as catcher. Speed matters alot in CF, so I overweight that component. I simply put each player at each position, compare that to the position he played the most often this year (through games of Aug 20, 2008), and give you the list:
Number 1 is Jose Guillen as the player most out of position this year. The guy can’t run, and so, how can you put him in the OF? The only thing he has going for him is his arm strength. Ideally, he should be a 3B or catcher. OF to IF transitions don’t work, especially if you are old (he’s 32). Going to catcher would be even more problematic. Basically, he has a really odd set of skills which are not being maximized, other than considering his age. If he was 22 not 32, with these particular skill sets, I’d turn him into a 3B or catcher.
Tied at number 1 is Pat Burrell. Similar to Guillen, he’s got alot more value tied to his arm than his legs. Burrell is the same age as Guillen, so that same applies with him.
Next is Michael Cuddyer. Yet again, another righty-throwing RF. The difference here is that Cuddyer is a good fielder, with a fantastic arm, one of the best in the business. He could have so much more impact at 3B (or catcher). I can see why Burrell might be hard to trust at 3B, but why would Cuddyer not have kept his career going at 3B? He played alot of 3B for the Twins. UZR saw him since 2003, at 2B or 3B, as -7 runs per 162 GP.
If we look at his scouting reports, year by year, we see that the Twins Fans didn’t like him as a fielder, until 2006. And that’s when he became a full-time outfielder. It’s possible that Twins management saw the raw skills to make him an infielder, and the Fans, through 2005, saw that that was not working. And that since 2006, placed firmly in RF, Cuddyer maximized his potential as best he could. This could be similar to Upton and Soriano.
We can see that it’s not working with them as infielders, and they work better as outfielders. We cannot, as fans, see the raw skills as we might hope the scouting report should, and instead reflects the actual performance. (That is both good and bad.) The true scout looks more at the raw skills, and can figure out their best position.
Cuddyer is probably the best test case we have here in terms of trying to come to grips between Fans and pros. His evaluation from 2006 onwards says he “should” be a 3B. His evaluation pre 2006, when he played 3B says he “should” be an OF.
Next up is Junior. All three OF positions are bad for him. The IF would be fine for him (and as a lefty, only 1B). But, his skill sets are exactly what a catcher looks like. What a pure drop in physical tools we have here. Obviously, he’s not going to become a catcher. And given that he is a league average hitter, that makes him the ideal replacement level player: a guy who can only DH, in a pool of hundreds of players who are league average hitters who can’t field at all.
Finally, #5 is Rickie Weeks. A guy whose value is tied up in his legs, and has little value with his arm must be moved to the OF. Last year, I argued, pre-Mike Cameron, that Braun should move to RF, Weeks to LF, and slide Hart to CF. With the acquisition of Cameron, only one of those moves was required. If Weeks has no home in the OF for the Brewers, then either he or Hart has to go. It just makes no sense to continue the Weeks experiment in the IF.