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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, June 13, 2011

When is the observed data half real and half noise?

Derek does exactly (one of the way of) what I do.  I don’t know that I actually get the same results, but, the process is bang-on.

Stabilizes    Years    Stat    Denominator
100    0.2    K    PA
-IBB-HBP
168    0.3    UIBB    PA
-IBB-HBP
253    0.4    IBB    PA
501    0.8    HBP    PA
-IBB
959    2.1    1B    PA
-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
833    1.8    2B
+3B    PA-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
48    1.5    2B    2B
+3B
48    1.5    3B    2B
+3B
1126    2.4    1B
+2B+3B (BABIP)    PA-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
143    0.3    HR    PA
-K-BB-HBP
62    0.5    HR 
(HR/FB)    OF FB [MLBAM]
65    0.5    HR 
(HR/FB)    OF FB [RS]
109    0.2    GB [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
116    0.2    GB [RS]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
182    0.4    OF FB [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
189    0.4    OF FB [RS]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
194    0.4    
IF FB [MLBAM]    GB+OF+IF+LD
233    0.5    
IF FB [RS]    GB+OF+IF+LD
795    1.7    LD [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
979    2.1    LD [RS]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
Inconclusive
*        SB%    SB+CS
39    0.3    SBA
%    1B+UIBB+HBP+ROE+FC

UPDATE: For pitchers:

Stabilizes    Years    Stat    Denominator
126    0.2    K    PA
-IBB-HBP
303    0.5    UIBB    PA
-IBB-HBP
943    1.5    IBB    PA
1346    2.1    HBP    PA
-IBB
3893    8.4    1B    PA
-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
2305    5    2B    PA
-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
4977    10.7    3B    PA
-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
1882    4    2B
+3B    PA-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
351    11    2B    2B
+3B
351    11    3B    2B
+3B
3729    8    1B
+2B+3B (BABIP)    PA-HBP-K-BB-HR-ROE
1271    2.7    HR    PA
-K-BB-HBP
1239    9.4    HR 
(HR/FB)    OF FB [MLBAM]
105    0.2    GB [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
205    0.4    OF FB [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
288    0.6    
IF FB [MLBAM]    GB+OF+IF+LD
2026    4.3    LD [MLBAM]    GB
+OF+IF+LD
36    2.3    SB    SB
+CS
161    1.2    SBA    1B
+UIBB+HBP+ROE+FC


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