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Wednesday, January 24, 2007
What does 17 at bats mean?
Abbott Katz, in the November 2006 issue of By The Numbers shows us that players who had exactly 17 at bats hit .171 from 1959-2005.
Does it mean anything? Obviously, if you only have 17 seasonal at bats, it means alot. It means you are a September callup, it means that you are on your last legs, it means you got hurt, it means that you did so badly that the manager doesn’t want to look at you. It could mean a whole lot of things. It might even mean that you suck.
In order to figure out more about what it means, you need to look at the data outside from which you selected from. And that means, look at the data in the season before and after that selected season. Which I will right now:
I looked at the 1959-2006 data, with exactly 20 at bats plus walks. I get back 103 nonpitchers. In those 2060 PA, these hitters had a hit or walk 532 times (.258 OBP). Pretty terrible, and somewhat consistent with Katz’ findings. So, who are these 103 hitters?
A full 51 of them did not have a single PA in the previous year. While this list includes plenty of nobodies, it also includes good players like Rich Aurilia, who reached base 10 times in 20 PA in 1995 as a rookie.
Of these 51 hitters, only 24 of them managed to get a single PA in the following season. So, lots (27) of September callups who don’t see the light of day the next season.
Of the 24, only 5 of them managed to get more than 150 PA the following season, including Rich Aurilia. And the simple average of these 24’s OBP? Would you believe .253? Their aggregate OBP was .312, and that is heavily weighted by the five guys who got more than 150 PA.
Focusing our attention back to the 52 hitters who did play in the previous year, 12 had at least 150 PA, led by Travis Lee. Their simple average of OBP was .282, and their aggregate was .300.
Of those 52 hitters, 30 also played in the season following their 20-PA season. Their simple average was .284, and an aggregate of .314.
If you see someone with a seasonal total of 20 PA, it means alot of things. It certainly likely means that you are a below-average hitter, but with such a wide uncertainty level, it could also mean that you are a rookie coming up, like Rich Aurilia, or an injured player like Travis Lee. Or you can be 27-yr old Jamie Bubela, who was given 20 PA, and never to be heard of again.