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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Brewers, Bush: What DO teams use to evaluate pitchers?
I’d love to be a fly on the wall during a team meeting about a certain pitcher. Unfortunately, I’d be quickly squashed under a fly swatter after either laughing hysterically or throwing up all over the wall.
Seriously, how do you think the discussion goes?
Milwaukee is a supposedly sabermetrically-inclined team (I have my doubts about that). They just sent Bush down to the minors. Here are his last 4 years NERC’s (normalized component ERA - 4.00 is an average starter), as a starter:
04 3.61
05 4.44
06 3.42
07 4.47
I hate to even break it down by year because it is a goofy odd/even pattern, which is most likely meaningless. Ignoring the goofy pattern, if you can (a lot of people just HAVE to see “reasons” in random patterns), those are the numbers of a solid #3 starter. Really solid. There are probably a hundred worse starters in baseball right now, and 300 worse pitchers.
But this guy gets sent down to the minors. On a team that is clearly in contention. Do they have any idea that he has been a decent to good major league starter for over 4 years now? Did he lose his velocity or break into the clubhouse kitchen and steal some sodas?
Seriously, how can a half billion dollar business not be able to recognize that one of their employees is and has been for many years as solid as you can get without being a star. There is NOTHING in his performance record that indicates that he is anything but.
Even this year, in 76 TBF (that is as far as my current database goes - he might have more), he has not “pitched” badly. 4.87 NERC. There are tons of good and great pitcher with worse NERC’s than that so far. His K rate is good - right around career norms. His HR rate is actually stingy. His singles rate is high, which is even more luck driven than BABIP. In any case, we are only talking about 20 IP or so - who cares what his numbers are in that many innings. It should make almost no difference whatsoever. If it did, then Bonderman, Bucholz, Buehrle, Burnett, Byrd, Garland, Oswalt, and about 50 other starters would all have to be sent down too. Did he all of sudden forget how to pitch in the last 20 innings?
Oh, yeah, his ERA is 6.75 and he is 0-3. Hey, maybe that is what they talk about in those meetings. A pitcher’s w/l record and his ERA.
Pitiful. Absolutely pitiful.