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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, May 23, 2008

Taking on 3-1: What are they thinking?

By , 10:48 PM

In the Phillies, Astros game today, the Phillies were down 1 run with 2 outs and runners on second and third in the top of the 9th.  Victorino, a lefty, was at the plate, and Valverde, the Stros closer, was on the mound.  The count went to 3-0 and then 3-1 and then Victorino popped out on the 3-2 count.  The 3-0 and 3-1 pitches were 92 and 93 mph fastballs right down the middle (the 3-1 pitch was about knee high, middle of the plate).  Valverde can throw up to 97.  It looked like Victorino was taking on 3-0 and 3-1 (we can’t be sure), and in fact, the announcers casually remarked that “he was taking on 3-0 and 3-1,” as if that were the most natural thing in the world.

At least one of the announcers played ball professionally, I assume. Now, maybe it is correct to take the 3-0 pitch (I am not even sure about that), but surely it can’t be correct to take the 3-1 pitch in that situation!  Don’t baseball players, managers, coaches, and announcers (former players) know that?


(8) Comments • 2008/05/26 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyMedia
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