THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 23, 2006

Weather-Park Factors

Good research by Chris Constancio.  One measure I like to use is (K+BB)PA, to show the percentage of plate appearances that end without contact being made.  In the cold times, that figure is .265, and in the hot times, that figure is .250.  So, batters take more (or pitchers are throwing in the corners more) when it’s cold.  Why would that be?  As Chris shows, there’s a huge gap in BABIP and HR between cold and hot.  If a batter thinks he’ll get on base more because of the walk, then he’ll sit and wait for it.  However, in low run environments, the walk has less value than in high ones.  So, it’s a huge balancing act to determine what the breakeven level is in the approach for the batter/hitter.