from Amazon
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Watching a baseball game is like watching a tourist play blackjack
I generally watch 2 or 3 games a day. I don’t specifically keep track, but I would guess that the number of strategic mistakes by the average manager is at least one per game. I would also guess that each mistake costs at least .02 wins, which would mean at least 3 wins in mistakes per season.
Some of the more common (and uncommon) ones:
1) The IBB is issued way too much and in clearly the wrong situations. For example, the Phillies (who have one of the worst tactical managers in baseball) issued an IBB to Pat Burrell to face Jeff Conine with a runner or second and 2 outs in the 3rd inning. I don’t even know what they are thinking when they make moves like this. I guess a manager can fathom a hit with a runner on second and 2 outs, but adding a runner to first is just too complicated for them to fathom. In fact, all they seem to think about when issuing IBB’s is the hitter and the lead runner. They seem to have no understanding of what it means to add a runner to the bases. Another thing which managers constantly do is load the bases with an IBB. That is almost never correct. You hear the announcers say something like, “He’d rather pitch to player B than player A.” That’s fine and dandy, but what about if they walk player B, not to mention the fact that player B becomes a better hitter with the bases loaded. I guess managers are just not smart enough to realize that you can walk player A with runners on second and third but you can’t walk player B with the bases juiced. Yesterday I also saw an IBB with no outs. That is also rarely correct. I foget the situation, but it was not late in the game.
2) The sacrifice bunt or not. Managers are clueless on this, but I guess you can’t expect that they would understand the nuances of the sac bunt. It took me several months to research and write the sac bunt chapter in The Book. And the key to sac bunting is using game theory. Managers do not know what game theory is let alone how to use it. The best way to use the sacrifice bunt and to “randomly” mix up your strategy (which is the key to the sac bunt) is to bunt your fast runners and better bunters and not your slow runners and poor bunters. While this is not mixing it up “randomly,” opposing managers will not realize your strategy is fixed. And pitchers are bunted all the time when they should not, especially with 1 out.
3) Not bringing in one of your better relievers (often the closer) in the 7th and 8th innings in a high leverage situation (when the game is on the line), and using closers in the 9th with 3 and 4 run leads. I don’t have any data, but a strategy used by a lot of managers lately is to use his closer in 4-run games in the 9th. I guess they are afraid to lose a 4 run game without their best pitcher in the game, which will occur about 1-2% of the time I would guess.
4) The hit and run, which I think should never be used.
5) Trying to steal with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, which should rarely if ever be done. (Also trying to run on a great-throwing catcher.)
6) Having the runner on 1st “run” on a 3-2 count with less than 2 outs and then not chewing out his ass when he does not run full speed (which happens all the time).
7) Not pinch-hitting for your non-ace pitcher with runners on base and in the mid to late innings. This is particularly egregiuos. See Tango’s discussion in The Book about never letting your 4th and 5th starters bat.
8) Batting back to back lefties in the lineup, or in the case of the Phillies, 3 lefties in a row.
9) Not bringing in a lefty reliever versus a lefty batter late in the game in a high leverage situation. Not too many managers do this, but some do.