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Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Was Craig running in the 9th on the 3-2 count correct?
The overwhelming consensus on BP, FG, this blog, and lots of other sites I have visited is, “No!” How did all these people come to that conclusion? Because it failed and it “cost” the Cardinals a good chance to tie or win the game. Does that make any sense? Of course not. Not in a rational sense. Can the outcome of a play that swings the percentages one way or the other maybe 1 or 2% inform us of the “correctness” of the play? Not in one single instance and not enough that a human being could possibly discern even after dozens or even hundreds of such plays. But people are irrational beings. When it comes to sports, they are out of their minds irrational.
So, can one determine whether running was correct in that instance without “running the numbers?” Not a chance. One can take a guess and be right 50% of the time, I guess. If you are a good sabermetrician, you might be able to do some quick mental calculations and maybe come up with the right answer with some degree of certainty, as long as the actual answer is not particularly close (i.e., the WE from each alternative is not a dead heat).
So what are all those people doing with their, “opinions?” I have no idea. To me, opinions should be reserved for ice cream flavors, what color car you like, and whom you would choose for your dream date. To me, there is no such thing as an “opinion” on which of two strategies yields the highest win expectancy. That is a matter of fact. That seems to be lost on 99.7% of the population.
So what is the right answer? I’m not going to tell you because I don’t know. I could know if I “ran the numbers” but I don’t want to deprive some aspiring sabermetrician of doing the work and making a name for himself.
OK, in all honesty, I can’t “know for sure” because I can only estimate the value of the requisite variables. Some more than others. But when the smoke clears, I could tell you one of three things with almost exactitude:
1) It is clearly a “run.”
2) It is clearly a “no run.”
3) It is close, depending on the exact values of all the variables, so we’ll just call it a draw.
Nowhere does my opinion matter…