from Amazon
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Verducci v Abreu
Tom Verducci says:
It should be alarming that Abreu has whiffed once in every three at-bats in close and late situations (20 in 61 at-bats) while hitting .230. He’s the kind of hitter who is happy with a walk in run-scoring situations, which sometimes leads to looking at third strikes.
Entering 2006…
...Abreu has 81 BB and 126 K per 600 PA, with bases empty. With runners on, he’s at 88 walks and 99 Ks (excludes IBB).
With bases empty, he’s at 61 extra base hits, and with runners on, he’s at 62. His singles goes up from 83 with bases empty to 101 with runners on.
In essence, his K drops by 20, and his singles go up by 20. Everything else remains the same. This is based on almost 5000 career PA.
And in 2006? Per 600 PA, he has 122 K with bases empty and 119 with runners on. His singles are 80 and 85. He has 28 XBH with bases empty, and 69 (!) with runners on. His walks jump from 116 with bases empty to 142 with runners on. That is really an astounding jump, especially when coupled with the outstanding jump in power as well. This is based on a bit over 400 PA. In 2006, his clutchiness score is +0.7 wins (average would be 0 wins).
What in the world is Tom Verducci talking about? 60 at bats? Yeesh.