THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, November 03, 2011

Value of scarcity

A few years ago, I asked what is the breakeven point if you don’t consider two 3-WAR players to be equal to one 6-WAR player.

Rally responded with:

From that formula, a 5.3 WAR player is equal to:

2 3.0 players
3 2.25 players
4 1.9 players
5 1.7 players

Which, I think, is a reasonable viewpoint among those people who give value to scarcity.  I responded as follows:

Good stuff Rally, just the basis for discussion I was looking for.

Ok, if for trade purposes:
5.3 = 3.0 + 3.0

Then what would be the equivalent here:
x + 0.7 = 3.0 + 3.0

And once you do that, then answer these as well:
y + 1.7 = 3.0 + 3.0
z + 2.7 = 3.0 + 3.0

Give me your answers for x, y, z.