THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, April 15, 2011

Unexplained variance

By Tangotiger

Good job by Phil in laying it all out.

As for the reason for that 3.7, a large portion of that is almost certainly the uncertainty of the true talent for each player. There’s only so much we can know about a player, given such a small sample as 3000 plate appearances, combined with such a narrow talent base that is MLB.

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