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Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Twitter mail of the day
The question was raised on Twitter; given a 4th out each inning, would the M’s score enough runs to be league average? They’re in the neighborhood of 35% below average now. How would we go about determining the impact on run scoring of adding a 4th out to a team’s innings. Figured this was up your alley, and I would really appreciate your input.
This would be the same thing as randomly selecting an out and converting it into a Reached Base On Error (i.e., a 4-out inning). Converting a sure out into a sure hit is worth about 0.75 or 0.80 runs. Given that in a three out half-inning, you would score some 0.4 to 0.6 runs per inning, then getting a 4-out inning, every inning, means you will be the greatest offensive team ever. It’s not even close.