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Thursday, August 25, 2011
Trying to score from 3B, down by 1, with 1 out left in the game
How sure do you need to be to go for it? This reader does the work for one scenario.
Using a different Win Expectancy chart, and trying a different scenario, here’s what I got. This one is a pure sac fly, so the batter made the second out, and you have to decide whether to send the runner or not.
If it’s the bottom of the 9th: if down by 1, you have a .15 chance of winning. If you score, you tie it up, and now you have a .55 chance of winning. If you are thrown out, you are down to 0. So, when you’ve got a +.40 potential gain against a -.15 potential loss, you only need to be safe 27% of the time. If it’s the top of the 9th: down by 1, you have a .10 chance of winning. If you tie it up, you are at .38. Thrown out means 0. In this case, it’s a gain of +.28 against a loss of -.10. That’s 26% of the time.
What if it’s a single (and the batter takes second on the throw): in the bottom of the 9th, it’s .18 chance of winning with runners on the corners, .60 if you score and draw the throw, and 0 if you are thrown out. That’s +.42 gain against -.18 loss, or 30% chance of needing to be safe. In the top of the 9th, it’s .15 winning with runners on the corners, .46 if you score and draw the throw, and 0 if you are thrown out. That’s +.31 against -.15, or 33% chance of needing to be safe.
Basically, go for it if you have at least a 1 in 3 chance of scoring. Sit tight otherwise.