from Amazon
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Top Prospects of 2003
John Sickels does what I think is required of ALL forecasters: a look back at shooting off your big mouth. Without any other forecaster doing the same, Sickels’ list looks pretty good here.
His top 50 nonpitchers averaged 35 win shares so far, according to his count. His top 40 pitchers averaged 12 win shares so far. Note that pitchers are severely undervalued by the Win Shares system. Basically, you should take 90% of nonpitchers totals to adjust them properly, and take 120% of the pitchers totals. That brings our nonpitchers to 31 win shares, and our pitchers to 15 win shares. So, given a group of top nonpitcher prospects and a group of top pitcher prospects, Sickels’ list would imply to pay the pitchers half as much as the nonpitchers.