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Friday, September 12, 2008
Tom Brady worth 1.2 wins above replacement?
That’s according to Vegas Watch’s analysis of the betting line.
Doesn’t seem right. What could be our guess? Let’s say the great QB completes 65% of his passes and an average one is 58%. Just WAG. Give the good one 13 yds per completion and the average 12 yds, and give them each 35 passes. Again, WAG. The difference in yards is 50 yards per game, or 800 yards in a season. I think my conversion is 10 yards per point, and 30 points per win. Again, WAG. So, that gives us about 2.5 wins above average. So, I guess that’s about 3 or 4 wins above replacement. Someone feel free to correct my numbers with something more real.
Perhaps the expectation is that the Pats will find some other QB that is better than whatever they’ve got?