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Friday, December 23, 2011
Today in strawman
Pinata time:
However, I scoff at the notion that pitchers have null impact on balls in play, as well as the corollary that anything outside of a league-average BABIP is attributable to the whims of random variation.
No current analyst holds the “null impact” position. I scoff at the notion that the sun will rise from the west.
Luck essentially removes the explanatory responsibility for any glitches in the sabr-matrix, which is irresponsible science on the part of those whose goal is to study the inner-workings of the sport.
Terrible sentence. Luck is luck. EVERY observation that results in a binary outcome is subject to luck. If something has a characteristic of happening that is greater than 0 and less than 1, say, something has a 98.567% chance of happening, then the fact that it did (1) or did not (0) happen at the moment you observed it is luck. It’s pure luck, because the chance that it would happen has already been established at .98567. Unless you are god, the timing of the event is unknowable. And so, when it happens, it’s luck. BUT IT’S LUCK CENTERED ON ITS TRUE MEAN. In this case, .98567. It’s not luck as in 50/50 chance of happening. It’s luck as to the timing of it. It’s random variation centered around a true (known with certainty or estimated with uncertainty) mean. And that mean is not 0 or 1.
Yet ignoring such constructs is at the core of modern concepts such as DIPS theory, as well as pitching statistics that eliminate from consideration any play that necessitates a fielder’s glove.
The eliminate part sounds like he’s talking about FIP. FIP doesn’t do that any more than OBP “eliminates” the fact that a HR is more valuable than a walk. OBP concerns itself with a subset of hitting performance (did the batter reach base). It “eliminates” the fact that a HR is more valuable. Heck, it even eliminates the fact that a runner has stolen bases and caught stealings. FIP concerns itself with the subset of performance that doesn’t involve the fielders. It takes NO POSITION on the other 75% of events that involves the fielders. It does not eliminate it, nor does it treat it as if it’s all random. FIP does what it does perfectly well.