from Amazon
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Times Through the Batting Order
Similar to what we did in The Book, I looked at how batter performance varied with times through the order. Specifically, I looked at starting pitchers only, the NL and AL only, for 2006-2008.
For each PA, I put it into one of 4 buckets: First time at bat, second time, third, and fourth or later. If, for example, a pinch hitter came in while the starting pitcher was facing the lineup for the third time, this PA did NOT go into the “3rd time through the order” bucket, since the batter had not faced this pitcher before in the game. In fact, pinch hitters were excluded completely. Pitcher batting was excluded as well.
Anyway, I compiled the stats in each bucket and compared them. Since the pools of pitchers and batters are obviously not equally represented in all 4 buckets (for example, better pitchers AND batters tend to dominate the “4th time” bucket), I adjusted the stats in each bucket by the average pitcher and average batter in that bucket. To do the adjustments, I used each pitcher’s and batter’s full year stats for that year.
The percentage of all the PA looked at that fell into each bucket were:
1 .354
2 .364
3 .251
4 .032
So only 3.2% of all PA by starting pitchers were against batters who had faced them at least 3 times prior in that game. I hope I did everything right, as that seems low.
Anyway, here are the individual components for each bucket, normalized to 1.00 where “1.00” represents an average component for all the buckets combined (basically, all PA by starting pitchers excluding pitcher hitting and pinch hitters). Each component is per PA, where PA excludes IBB and SH.
Foul Out
1st time: 1.009
2nd time: .996
3rd time: 1.041
4th+ time .940
Single
1st time: .996
2nd time: 1.012
3rd time: 1.03
4th+ time .994
Dbl+Trpl
1st time: .963
2nd time: 1.024
3rd time: 1.050
4th+ time 1.065
Dbl/(Dbl+Trpl)
1st time: 1.005
2nd time: 1.003
3rd time: .989
4th+ time .991
Trpl/(Dbl+Trpl)
1st time: .945
2nd time: .967
3rd time: 1.105
4th+ time 1.087
HR
1st time: .947
2nd time: 1.015
3rd time: 1.089
4th+ time 1.049
BB (No IBB)
1st time: 1.029
2nd time: 1.004
3rd time: .990
4th+ time 1.019
HBP
1st time: 1.036
2nd time: .959
3rd time: 1.044
4th+ time 1.04
SO
1st time: 1.106
2nd time: .980
3rd time: .928
4th+ time .923
ROE
1st time: .927
2nd time: 1.030
3rd time: 1.017
4th+ time .989
SF
1st time: .958
2nd time: 1.067
3rd time: 1.003
4th+ time 1.001
GDP
1st time: .975
2nd time: 1.035
3rd time: 1.024
4th+ time 1.006
IFS (infield single)
1st time: .972
2nd time: 1.025
3rd time: 1.035
4th+ time 1.059
Bunt Single
1st time: 1.024
2nd time: 1.014
3rd time: 1.009
4th+ time .871
WP
1st time: .894
2nd time: 1.029
3rd time: 1.068
4th+ time 1.505
PB
1st time: 1.077
2nd time: .979
3rd time: .933
4th+ time .901
wOBA
1st time: .338
2nd time: .347
3rd time: .355
4th+ time .350
I am not sure why the 4th+ time through the order, the offensive output actually goes down to 2nd-3rd time levels. Maybe the weather is a factor. Maybe the strategic nature of the PA’s at the end of the game. Maybe the selective sampling aspect that if starting pitchers are still in the game the 4th+ time through the order, they are pitching well that day or the run scoring environment is low.