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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, June 12, 2009

The transformation of Miguel Tejada?

Craig Brown points out:

This season however, Tejada has cut his strikeouts like never before. Through Wednesday, he’s struck out just 15 times in 230 at bats. At 6.5 percent, he’s whiffing at the lowest rate of his career. And his 15.6 AB/K ratio is the best in the league.

And while he’s not striking out, he’s not taking the free pass, either. Tejada has drawn just six walks (one intentional) in his 242 plate appearances. Patience hasn’t been his strength over his career - his highest walk rate was in 2000 when he drew a career high 66 walks and strolled to first 9.8 percent of the time.

This year, Tejada is swinging as aggressive as ever. He’s seeing just 3.3 pitches per plate appearance - the 12th lowest total among all players with at least 150 plate appearances. He’s hacking right out of the box. Tejada is swinging at the first pitch 27 percent of the time.

What is most intriguing is that a (former?) power hitter like Tejada is anywhere near a list like this. At the bottom is just downright shocking.
...
He’s certainly performing at a high level and it’s been going on for most of the season. But at some point, he’ll have to tone things down or his free swinging ways catch up. Pitchers are undoubtedly aware of this. As the season continues, look for Tejada to see fewer strikes, forcing him to be patient. He’s been around the block a few times, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts.


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