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Tuesday, October 02, 2007
The timing of Vlad
Congratulations to Vladimir Guerrero, for the timeliness of his performance, clutchiest in the league. Using Leverage Index, we can look at the 100 times when it counted the most (LI of at least 1.61, average of 2.31) and compare his performance to the 100 times when it counted the least (LI of at most 0.29, average of 0.13). Because of ties, it’s actually 102 and 101, respectively. IBB excluded.
Here we go:
Event Crucial Blowout
HR 6 3
3B 0 0
2B 8 3
1B 20 17
Total Hits 34 23
Error 1 2
NIBB 9 8
HBP 3 1
Reached base 47 34
K 4 13
DP 8 2
TOTAL PA 102 101
WPA/LI +1.07 +0.05
Timeliness +1.51 -0.04
WPA +2.58 +0.01
The WPA/LI figure is the one that deflates the impact of leverage, and is essentially Linear Weights by Game State. When the game counted, but without the inflationary impact of the leverage, he performed at a +1.07 wins level over 102 PA, meaning +0.105 wins per PA. As you can see, he reached base an astounding 47 times in 102 PA (OBP of .461), with 60 total bases in 88 AB+SF (SLG of .682).
When the game was not on the line, his WPA/LI was essentially league average. That is, he was an average hitter.
Now, because his +1.07 wins occurred when the game counted the most, the Angels ended up benefitting by +2.58 wins. That difference is the timeliness of Vlad’s performance, or +1.51 wins. How you want to treat that, you decide. You can give it all to him, since the Angels clearly benefitted by his Bondsesque performance. Or, you can give it to the Angels as a team, since Vlad may have been “lucky” to have timed his performance with when the Angels needed him. I love that he only Ked 4 times in those situations. (His 8 DP may seem pretty high, but remember that in crucial situations, you usually have men on base to begin with and less than 2 outs.)
As you can see when the game was already out of hand, his relatively poor performance didn’t impact the game. That is, no matter how good or bad you hit in those situations, nothing is going to change (more or less).