from Amazon
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
The dirty secret: WAR aging path for great players
All players who were
- born between 1895 and 1968
- over the preceding 4 seasons had at least 1500 PA, with a WAR/700PA rate of 4+ wins
- in the preceding season had at least 500 PA, with a WAR/700PA rate of 4+ wins
Age refers to his age entering that fifth year.
WAR4 is his WAR for the preceding 4 years and PA4 is the PA for the preceding 4 years. WAR/PA is WAR4 divided by PA4 times 700.
Next1 is his total WAR in the next year. Next2 is his WAR in the second year, etc. Avg5 is the average of Next1 through Next5.
Data from Rally’s WAR database.
Age n WAR4 PA4 WAR/PA Next1 Next2 Next3 Next4 Next5 Avg5
25 15 19 2106 6.4 6.0 7.1 6.3 6.4 5.7 6.3
26 54 18 2150 5.9 5.3 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.2
27 85 19 2246 5.9 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.6
28 121 20 2297 6.0 5.1 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.2
29 165 19 2295 5.8 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.7
30 159 20 2350 6.0 4.5 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.8
31 164 20 2354 6.0 3.9 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.2 3.3
32 166 20 2376 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 3.1
33 155 20 2374 5.9 4.1 3.7 2.7 2.1 1.6 2.9
The “dirty secret” is that great young players will perform better than other great older players. Great players at age 25, who until then averaged a WAR of 6.4 per 700 PA averaged 6.3 WAR per season (and at much less than 700 PA) over the next 5 seasons.
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Other interesting tidbits: the great 25 year olds peaked at 26. The great 26 year olds peaked at 27.
Even though the great 27 year olds and 33 year olds both entered their season with the same level of past performance over the preceding 4 seasons (5.9 WAR per 700 PA, close to 2300 PA over the last 4 seasons), the younger group earned 1 to 2 more wins in each of the next 5 seasons. The average was an astounding 1.7 more wins per season, and that’s just a 6 year gap in age.