from Amazon
Thursday, March 13, 2008
The A’s never swing on 3-0?
That seems to be what the data is showing here. It is of course a silly thing to “never” do something, as that’ll get exploited in short order. You’d hope anyway. I’m not sure the last time that Mike Piazza has swung at a 3-0 count. Must be back in the 90s. But, pitchers were scared of him the whole time. Anyway, the A’s “pass through” performance once they reached a 3-0 count shows that they are as good or better than the league average. It seems that, for now, no one’s been calling the A’s on their “bluff”.
Do you PITCHf/x-ers want more work? Look at hitters who almost always swing (break them up into power hitters and not). Where in the strike zone do the pitchers pitch to them? Now, look at hitters who swing ALOT on 3-0 (again, break them up into power hitters and not). Where in the strike zone do pitchers pitch to them? (Compare that to some neutral count, like 0-0 or 1-1.) Are the pitchers smart enough to realize that the 3-0 always-take hitters are in fact always taking and therefore are pitching them more down the middle?
Of course, a player is not a robot, and will start to adapt if pitchers throw too much down the middle. So, what we have to do is identify the hitters as of today, let the world know about it. And let’s see who starts to adapt in 2008.
THIS is what baseball is all about. Thank you PITCHf/x.