from Amazon
Monday, December 01, 2008
The 3-0 count
I love all articles on the 3-0 count because the number of choices to the pitcher and batter are very limited, while the payoffs are more apparent. Here’s John Walsh:
I re-did the above, this time only considering cases when first base was occupied. The thinking there is that with first base occupied, the pitcher is much less likely to pitch around a batter. The data show that there was no difference with a runner on first; the ball percentage was still 35 percent.
Later John says using PITCHf/x:
What I’ve done is take all 3-0 pitches, and thrown away anything that is not classified as a fastball. I figure if a pitcher is throwing something other than the fastball, he’s probably afraid the batter might swing on 3-0 and he’s unlikely to be aiming down the middle.
Perhaps John can merge the two, and look at situations where 1B is not open AND the pitch is a fastball.