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Monday, October 02, 2006
The 2006 MVP, Clutchy, Chokey Hitters
Fangraphs has the data, and here are the results.
Albert Pujols had 18.2 WA and 9.0 LA (that’s win advancement and loss advancement), for a total of 27.2 GA (game advancement). Ryan Howard had 19.1 WA and 10.9 LA. The difference, Howard had 0.9 WA more and 1.9 LA more is well-below replacement level, meaning that Pujols’ theoretical replacement backup would have made up the difference. Furthermore, Pujols is a much better fielder, likely at least +2 wins better than Howard. The only other guy to consider is Beltran. He played fewer games than Pujols, and is over 4 wins behind him. Beltran’s fielding simply can’t overcome the gap.
Ortiz was +18.2 and 10.2 in WA, LA. Jeter was +16.4 and 10.4. Ortiz is about 2 wins ahead of Jeter. The IF/DH issue is similar to what we had with Ortiz and ARod last year. That year, however, Ortiz was a full run higher than ARod, than he is of Jeter. Then again, last year’s ARod fielding was likely a full run better than this year’s Jeter. I’d give it to Ortiz, but if Jeter gets it, it would have been a fair choice. Everyone else is out of this discussion.
Ortiz, god of all that is clutch, is now +6 wins in clutch wins in the last two years. This is likely the greatest clutch performance of all time. (I don’t know that it is, just likely that it is.)
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The Clutchiness Hitters of the Year were Pujols, Jeter, and Ortiz. The Chokiness Hitters of the Year were: Troy Glaus, Jason Bay, Victor Martinez, and A-Fraud. A-Rod has 121 RBIs. In 10 years, no one will remember how empty those RBIs were. Unless WPA and LI catches on.