from Amazon
Monday, March 22, 2010
Teixeira and UZR (again)
The important thing is my key to remembering how to spell his name. Think of Old MacDonald had a farm, e-i, e-i, o. So, e-i, e-i, a. TEIXEIRA. Got it?
Now:
But to say 15 first basemen suddenly were better than Teixeira underscores the argument that sabermetrics are blind to the game’s subtleties.
But, that’s not what UZR is saying. It’s not saying that they were “suddenly better”. What do you do with batting stats after two months of the season? That’s EXACTLY how much weight to place on a first baseman’s full-season UZR.
The problem is not UZR, it’s people seeing numbers and trying to interpret them.
So, Tex is the sole blip in an otherwise good looking list of guys in three-year UZR. Here’s the list of the 18 1B with the most playing time in the last 3 years:
UZR/150 Name
9.1 Kevin Youkilis
8 Albert Pujols
7.6 Casey Kotchman
5.5 Todd Helton
3.4 Derrek Lee
2 Lyle Overbay
1.4 Ryan Howard
1 Justin Morneau
0.9 Mark Teixeira
0.7 Carlos Pena
0.4 Lance Berkman
0.2 Paul Konerko
0 Adam LaRoche
-1.3 Carlos Delgado
-1.8 Adrian Gonzalez
-3.8 James Loney
-5.1 Ryan Garko
-5.7 Prince Fielder
We don’t have a problem with the names in the top 6, we don’t have a problem with the names in the bottom 2. We have some problem with the names in the middle (and Adrian Gonzalez should be just as much a “concern"). But so what? Here’s the list of the top 1B hitters, just based on one season (2008):
wOBA Name
0.458 Albert Pujols
0.419 Lance Berkman
0.41 Mark Teixeira
0.402 Kevin Youkilis
0.377 Jason Giambi
0.376 Miguel Cabrera
0.374 Carlos Pena
0.373 Joey Votto
0.371 Adrian Gonzalez
0.37 Prince Fielder
0.369 Justin Morneau
0.366 Ryan Howard
0.364 Carlos Delgado
0.364 Conor Jackson
0.36 Derrek Lee
0.357 Adam LaRoche
0.346 Jorge Cantu
0.343 Paul Konerko
0.342 Lyle Overbay
0.338 Mike Jacobs
0.333 James Loney
0.333 Ryan Garko
0.325 Nick Swisher
0.322 Casey Kotchman
0.315 Kevin Millar
0.302 Daric Barton
Hey, how did Prince Fielder get a .420 wOBA in 2009, if he was only .370 in 2008? How did Adrian Gonzalez go from .368 in 2008 to .402 in 2009? Lance Berkman from +50 runs to +27 runs in one season? Hitting stats are teh suck. They make no sense. yada yada yada
If you want to make apples-to-apples comparison, then compare 3 years of 1B UZR to 1 year of hitting stats. Or make 1 year of 1B UZR to 2 months of hitting stats. For every anomolous UZR stat you show me at 1B, I will show you exactly the same number on the hitting side for 1B.