from Amazon
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Swing area predictability
More good stuff from Josh.
But if we have plate discipline metrics from 2010, we also know strikeout rate from 2010. Do these metrics give us any information that the previous year’s strikeout rate does not?
If I run a regression of 2011 strikeout rate on 2010 strikeout rate and 2010 swing area, I find that swing area no longer has significance. I find the same result for O-swing. In other words, these plate discipline metrics are not useful in predicting the next year’s strikeout rate if we already know the previous year’s strikeout rate.