from Amazon
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Strategic Walks
Good post by Peter:
My preliminary studies have shown that if I define three categories: intentional walk, strategic walk, and non-strategic walk, then I get more accurate results with run values set as .10 for IBB, .27 for SBB and .33 for NSBB with about 25% of the non-intentional walks falling in the SBB category.
The idea here is accurate, and really represented by win values of the walk.
We can see a more basic version here:
http://tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html
Where we only consider the base/out state (we should also consider inning/score).
On average, the run value of the walk is roughly 10% more extreme than the out, and of the opposite sign. So, if the run value of the out is -.30 runs, then the run value of the walk would be some +.33 runs.
If we go to the above link, we can see that the run value of the walk with bases empty and less than 2 outs is some 50% higher than the run value of the out. And with 2 outs, it’s some 10% higher. So, we can say that a walk in the less than 2 outs, bases empty situation that those are not strategic walks.
The more basic situation is the one with 1b open (runner on 2b) with 1 or 2 outs. In those cases, we see that the run value of the walk is some 40 to 50% LOWER than the run value of the out. These we could classify as “strategic” walks, especially if they were given to good hitters.
So, I agree that there are nuances to the run value of the walk, and calling them as Peter is doing is a great way to make the point, and to show which pitchers/batters are using the strategy. But, overall, the run value of the walk remains what it is.