from Amazon
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Strasburg’s PITCHf/x after 5 games
Great stuff from Mike, especially this:
To RHB, he’s targetting the ball down, below the knees. To LHB, he’s targetting either down, or away (along his pitching-hand). A substantial portion of these changeups are outside the strike zone. And yet the batters can’t help themselves.
If I had to guess, batters are used to seeing 91mph pitches as fastballs or sinkers, and so, they expect a ball that is coming in mid-to-low to remain somewhere above the knees. But Strasburg 91mph is a changeup, which means it has extra drop on it (18 inches, rather than 6 or 12 for Strasburg’s fastball / sinker). And so, the batters can’t lay off it. Yet.
I’d like to see a similar chart for Lincecum, if Mike is up for it. And, if you are looking for extra work, how batters respond to Lincecum’s changeup the second game and third game they face him. That is, do they learn?
I’m also surprised to the extent that his velocity is down throughout the game. Mike, two things: is his location also off? And does his movement also diminish?