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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Saturday, June 14, 2008

Defensive Indifference: Strange thing in BOS/CIN game today

By , 06:16 PM

In the bottom of the 10th inning in today’s BOS game, CIN was down by 2 runs with 2 outs, with Jolbert Cabrera, a veteran journeyman player, on second base.  With Griffey on base and the shift on, Jolbert easily took third on the next pitch, since no one was playing near third base.

Now, obviously being on third base is no better than being on second in that situation.  In fact, you can make an argument that a foul ball occasionally hits a runner on third in fair territory, so that it is better to be on second, although I don’t think I’ve ever seen that, and it is exceedingly rare (if it has ever happened at all).  Plus, being on second base, you can possibly steal the signs or the location and relay it to the batter, although runners rarely if ever do that anymore (I am not sure why).  On the other hand (that is the last hand, I think), being on second might be a distraction to the batter, although certainly you are not going to be “jockeying” on the basepaths and you certainly don’t need to have any kind of a lead since it doesn’t matter if you score on a hit.

Now, even if he can walk to third on the pitch, which was apparently the case, there is a non-zero chance that you could trip and fall and get thrown out.  I found it curious that a guy who has been playing baseball for almost 30 years would do that (take third).


(5) Comments • 2008/06/15 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyRun_Win_Expectancy
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