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Friday, April 03, 2009
Starting from scratch
A reader was asking me about starting a baseball league from scratch. All you have is:
1. A population of 5000 nonpitchers
2. They have a mean offense runs per PA of 0, with one SD = .150 per PA
3. They have a mean fielding runs per PA of 0, with one SD = .075 per PA (presumes 75% of PA are BIP)
As I told him:
I meant that if you take the 5000 players in pro ball, the range in fielding would come in at +/- .10 runs per BIP, regardless of position. Or more accurate, on average.
So, the range might be +/- .15 runs per BIP at SS, +/- .13 at CF, +/- .12 at 3B, 2B, etc, etc, etc +/- .05 at 1B, etc, etc, etc. So that, on average it would be +/-.10.
On average, I’m saying that it’s +/-.15 runs per PA as a batter, and +/- .10 runs per BIP as a fielder. And since BIP makes up 75% of the PA, then the range is twice as wide hitting-wise than fielding-wise.
The plan therefore is to be able to find the right balance in terms of distributing your talent across positions. Basically, given these conditions, how much hitting and fielding talent should you expect to find in MLB at each position? I guess I should have also noted that we have a handedness constraint at the three IF positions, and we’d have to accept a constraint at C.
The question being asked is if my assumptions are valid: what kind of distribution of hitting and fielding talent should we expect to exist among these 5000 players?